{r analysis, include = FALSE} #source('synthetic_control_analysis.R', local = TRUE) #

Brazil Results

combine estimates

SC Estimate (95% CI) ITS Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
0 0.84 (0.75, 0.99) 0.86 (0.74, 0.99) 0.95 (0.81, 1.08)
1 0.77 (0.73, 0.81) 0.72 (0.63, 0.86) 0.82 (0.72, 0.91)
2 0.77 (0.73, 0.83) 0.78 (0.68, 0.91) 0.78 (0.73, 0.85)
3 0.79 (0.67, 0.85) 0.82 (0.74, 0.91) 0.81 (0.73, 0.9)
4 0.81 (0.74, 0.94) 0.78 (0.68, 0.92) 0.75 (0.66, 0.87)
5 0.81 (0.73, 0.9) 0.89 (0.78, 1.01) 0.82 (0.7, 0.97)
6 0.86 (0.77, 0.94) 0.94 (0.85, 1.04) 0.85 (0.76, 0.94)
7 0.95 (0.84, 1.03) 0.97 (0.89, 1.06) 0.96 (0.87, 1.06)
8 0.99 (0.89, 1.12) 0.99 (0.91, 1.08) 0.99 (0.91, 1.08)
9 0.75 (0.71, 0.86) 0.74 (0.66, 0.83) 0.84 (0.75, 0.94)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
0 0.886 0.104 0.010 0.000
1 0.977 0.023 0.000 0.000
2 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
3 0.000 0.769 0.231 0.000
4 0.222 0.000 0.778 0.000
5 0.796 0.021 0.183 0.000
6 0.873 0.000 0.000 0.127
7 0.926 0.074 0.000 0.000
8 0.036 0.000 0.000 0.964
9 0.870 0.130 0.000 0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
0 E00_99 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.2811458
1 E40_46 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 K00_99 0.0652262
2 E40_46 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.3800618
3 cJ20_J22 0.4703603 K00_99 0.4354719 P00_99 0.3288031
4 pandemic 1.0000000 N39 0.8615424 N00_99 0.8544601
5 A41 1.0000000 pandemic 1.0000000 K80 0.6138332
6 pandemic 1.0000000 E00_99 0.5546701 L00_99 0.4600581
7 I00_99 0.6812418 H00_99_SY 0.4135920 A41 0.3711638
8 A41 0.6622020 I00_99 0.3204682 H00_99_SY 0.2097625
9 E40_46 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 Z00_99 0.0573246

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
0 0.84 (0.75, 1.04) cJ20_J22 1 0.9 (0.72, 1.14) E00_99 1 0.91 (0.72, 1.13) M00_99 0.4 0.92 (0.67, 1.15)
1 0.77 (0.73, 0.82) cJ20_J22 1 0.75 (0.69, 0.85) E40_46 1 0.75 (0.68, 0.9) K00_99 0.22 0.75 (0.7, 0.89)
2 0.77 (0.73, 0.87) cJ20_J22 1 0.81 (0.74, 0.96) E40_46 1 0.77 (0.67, 0.95) N39 0.45 0.76 (0.68, 0.9)
3 0.78 (0.72, 0.94) cJ20_J22 0.86 0.78 (0.7, 0.88) P00_99 0.51 0.77 (0.7, 0.85) G00_99_SY 0.4 0.8 (0.75, 0.9)
4 0.78 (0.67, 0.87) pandemic 1 0.74 (0.54, 0.83) Z00_99 0.82 0.71 (0.62, 0.83) E00_99 0.76 0.71 (0.62, 0.86)
5 0.81 (0.71, 0.92) pandemic 1 0.62 (0.54, 0.84) I00_99 0.95 0.64 (0.55, 0.81) A41 0.88 0.69 (0.57, 0.92)
6 1.05 (0.82, 1.15) pandemic 1 0.86 (0.69, 0.97) E00_99 0.94 0.81 (0.67, 0.92) K80 0.3 0.82 (0.68, 0.98)
7 1.13 (1.02, 1.46) E00_99 0.96 0.91 (0.82, 1.31) P00_99 0.34 0.91 (0.81, 1.17) cJ20_J22 0.29 0.96 (0.85, 1.19)
8 0.97 (0.88, 1.17) A41 0.82 1.04 (0.93, 1.17) I00_99 0.34 1.02 (0.87, 1.15) I60_64 0.28 1.03 (0.91, 1.19)
9 0.75 (0.71, 0.91) cJ20_J22 1 0.74 (0.67, 0.92) E40_46 1 0.84 (0.76, 0.95) C00_D48 0.15 0.77 (0.68, 0.86)

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